The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
The events at Michigan have historically been run very clean and fast, as the 400-mile jaunt around this track typically ends up short of three hours. Sometimes, the winner at Michigan is determined through pit stop and strategy execution, while at other times it is pure horsepower that gets it done. Most often it simply depends upon the timing of the cautions in the race, and the critical late lap pit decisions made. In looking at past winners, you’ll find nine different winners in the last eight events, including four for team Roush. In fact, extending that look back to 14 races, Roush still owns six of the trips to Victory Lane.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. Qualifying for this race is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, & Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all the high speed excitement…
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
The events at Michigan have historically been run very clean and fast, as the 400-mile jaunt around this track typically ends up short of three hours. Sometimes, the winner at Michigan is determined through pit stop and strategy execution, while at other times it is pure horsepower that gets it done. Most often it simply depends upon the timing of the cautions in the race, and the critical late lap pit decisions made. In looking at past winners, you’ll find nine different winners in the last eight events, including four for team Roush. In fact, extending that look back to 14 races, Roush still owns six of the trips to Victory Lane.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. Qualifying for this race is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, & Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all the high speed excitement…
